The TIE Weekly Insights (Nov 9)
Some highlights from this week:
- Bitcoin closed the week above $15,000 for the first time since Jan 2018
- Wyoming elects first Bitcoin owner to U.S Senate
- Record $1B worth of BTC linked to Silk Road seized by U.S. government
- Cash App’s Bitcoin revenue soars 1000% to $1.63B in Q3
- JPMorgan’s analysis shows institutional investors moving from Gold ETFs to BTC
- Joe Biden wins presidential election
- ByBit partners with sports club Borussia Dortmund
- Grayscale’s AUM surpasses $9B
The total crypto market cap increased by +12.65% this week from $395B to $445B, as the macro catalyst has continued to strengthen. We are seeing new market participants entering the ecosystem. Despite the volatile week with the presidential election, all major cryptocurrencies and traditional market indices saw positive price changes. With increasing prices we also got increasing trading volumes and tweet volumes. The median long-term sentiment score is 66, which indicates that the market currently has a positive outlook.
The week started off as red, before picking up momentum and ending the second half of the week green. All of the majors are highly correlated right now, but ETH saw the highest returns at +15.17%, followed by BTC +13.10% and LINK +10.33%.
Bitcoin Closes Above $15,000 for the First Time Since Jan '18
Bitcoin’s market cap has been steadily rising for the past month, increasing its dominance from 57% to 64%. This week, Bitcoin closed above $15,000 for the first time since Jan 2018. There have only been 2 other weekly closes that were higher, $19,379 on Dec 11, 2017 and $16,174 on Jan 1, 2018. This is the 5th week in a row that BTC has closed up/green.
BTC’s volatility continued as it traded in a 20.9% range this week from the low of $13,215 to the high of $15,966. Investor sentiment was positive for almost the entire week, on the back of different news and announcements. Wyoming voters elected the first Bitcoin owner to the U.S Senate, congresswoman Cynthia Lummis. Cash App’s Bitcoin revenue soars by 1,000% to over $1.6B, reported by Square. JPMorgan’s analysis shows that institutions are ditching Gold ETFs for Bitcoin. PayPal mentioned that the waiting list demand was three times their expectations and suggested that their first push into crypto offerings is just the beginning. Ahead of the election, the number of large reportable CME Bitcoin futures traders hit an all-time-high.
People Are Talking About Bitcoin
The number of Twitter users talking about Bitcoin has reached its second highest total so far this year. The only other time that more people were mentioning BTC on Twitter was back on July 16th, the day that dozens of high profile figures and companies were hacked to promote a Bitcoin scam. But the recent spike in conversations has been sparked by a price increase and institutional adoption, so you could say that this time around appears to have more potential sustainability.
With the number of Bitcoin conversations increasing, investors’ sentiment on Bitcoin has also been steadily rising for the past 2 months. BTC’s 30d average daily sentiment score has increased by 23%, from 48 to 59. This confirms that these increasing conversations are becoming more positive.
How Does Bitcoin Compare to the Size of Other Payment Solutions?
Bitcoin has surpassed PayPal in market capitalization and it's coming up on JPMorgan and Mastercard quickly. Visa still has a comfy $100B lead.
Do Coinbase Listings Still Impact Prices?
On Thursday Nov, 5 Coinbase announced that Civic (CVC), Decentraland (MANA), and district0x (DNT) are available for trading. This made the prices of these assets skyrocket. The chart below shows a visualization of returns from this week, with the Coinbase listing marked in white. You can clearly see that there was a drastic impact on returns post listing. These assets ended the week at DNT +644%, CVC +159%, and MANA +29%. The TIE’s SigDev platform picked up these announcements nearly 40 minutes before Twitter picked up and the market started reacting.
Stay tuned for our research piece on Coinbase Listings later this week!
DeFi has followed the majors this week, with 15 out of the top 20 DeFi tokens seeing positive returns. The median asset is up 6%. This is a change from the past weeks of red throughout DeFi, which was likely caused by the launch of Ethereum 2.0's deposit contract. Whether returns are positive or negative, the constant volatility makes for great trading.
The chart below shows the difference between the current price of a cryptocurrency and its 50 day simple moving average. This could show current price trends and how extreme prices are away from their mean.
Yearn Short Squeeze
There was a 300 YFI shorted opened on-chain this week as the price got pushed down. The market didn’t take this too kindly as it ripped upwards of 55% in one hour on Saturday! The price of YFI increased by 142% from its weekly low to its weekly high.
This table visualizes the dominance of each major cryptocurrency in terms of Market Capitalization, Trading Volume, and Tweet Volume.
This Week's Podcast Episodes
Ep. 24 - Crypto Market Structure with Aya Kantorovich (FalconX)
In our twenty-second episode, John Peurifoy discusses how FPG helps institutions trade at scale with limited slippage, liquidity, and token valuation. Listen here
Ep. 25 - One Year Down the Rabbit Hole with Samantha Bohbot
In our twenty-fifth episode Samantha Bohbot discusses DCGs state of crypto report and her experience one year down the crypto rabbit hole. Listen here