The TIE
March 23, 2021

The TIE Weekly Insights (Mar 22, 2021)

Some highlights from last week:

Trending Topics

Market Overview

Despite several days of very choppy price action, the total cryptocurrency market cap increased by +1.35% this week, growing from $1.82T to $1.85T. BTC dominance sits around 61%. The median 7 day return for major assets was +0.6%, with the big 3 experiencing negative returns: BTC -2.8%, ETH -3.5%, & LTC -8.7%. XRP (+17.7%) and ADA (+12.7%) both saw positive double digit returns. Long term sentiment for the major assets remains positive with a median score of 73.2 (high). Trading volume was down -5.6% with BNB (-52.2%) taking the biggest hit. Tweet volume was up 3%.

Market Overview

Weekly Performance of the Crypto Market

The crypto market took a hit to start off the week, with most sectors decreasing between -5% to -9%. Momentum picked up mid week with every sector finishing in the green besides BTC and ETH. For the second week in a row, the SH*T index (by FTX) has outperformed the rest of the market by a landslide.

Performance of Market

Choppy Week for BTC

The price of Bitcoin traded within a very choppy 13.8% range this past week, from the low of $53,271 to the high of $60,633. Short term sentiment was negative for the majority of the week, excluding on Thursday after the Fed kept rates near zero. There were several significant developments that impacted the market throughout the week, as shown on the chart below.

Bitcoin Price vs Sentiment

Coinbase Lists Cardano

The long awaited Coinbase listing has finally arrived!

Social conversations surrounding Cardano started surging shortly after Coinbase Pro announced that ADA will be available to trade, starting on March 18. Within 24hrs, Tweet volume had increased +176%, resulting in nearly 7,000 new Tweets. Not only has this listing announcement created more conversations, investor sentiment within these conversations has become increasingly more positive (+43%).

ADA listing

Cardano Community Reaches New Highs

In recent weeks, Cardano (ADA) has seen significant growth. In fact, the price of ADA has increased by +567% since the beginning of the year and has even reached a new all time high. Its been 3 years since ADA was near these high prices, but something is much different this time around. The Cardano community has grown by +328%. The number of daily Twitter users talking about ADA has surged from 860 back in 2018 when prices were this high, up to 3,672.

ADA

Grayscale Launches 5 New Crypto Trusts

Earlier this week, Grayscale Investments started offering new trusts to invest specifically in five different cryptocurrencies. All five of these cryptocurrencies experienced price increases throughout the 24hrs following the announcement:

BAT +31% LINK +7% MANA +22% FIL +24% LPT +283%

Grayscale New Trusts

NFT Takeover

Mentions of non-fungible tokens have been absolutely exploding in the mainstream media since the beginning of the year. Despite DeFi being a hot topic that’s outpacing the rest of the industry, NFTs have completely taken over media headlines.

NFTs

Derivatives Overview

Futures Curve

Bitcoin futures have reshuffled slightly since last week amidst a week of choppy price action. FTX, Deribit, Binance and Bitmex still lead the way with the most aggressive premiums in the September contracts priced above $63,500. Huobi and Okex have lagged behind this week, possibly indicating that Asian markets have a more muted opinion on Bitcoin for later in the year and/or bigger market players are making a yield play while Bitcoin ranges by selling the backend contracts against their spot holdings.

CME’s contracts continue to get depressed despite spot prices starting the week above $57,000, which is slightly higher than last Monday’s open. The premium against the June contract narrowed, which currently trades at below $59,000 compared to ~$59,500 last week.

Bitcoin Futures Curve

Image courtesy of @btc_status

Funding

Aggregated funding rates plummeted, a bearish reflection of trader opinion as Bitcoin struggled to reclaim $60,000. Funding rates peaked at around 0.06% mid-week as Bitcoin hugged resistance, a far cry from last week’s 0.184% peak. Funding flattened to 0.01% shortly afterward, and currently hovers in the 0.01%-0.03% range, remaining effectively neutral. Perhaps bullish traders are not as eager to hop back into their long positions before Bitcoin makes a decisive move.

Image courtesy of CryptoQuant

Premiums

Coinbase premiums were indecisive, besides registering deeper whipsaws below -$150 and above $100 early on, premiums were contained in a sub $100 range, with a slightly positive <$50 premium holding for most of the week.

The Grayscale premium rebounded from settling at -7.1% on March 12th, and ended the week at -3.62% on March 19th. Investors eye the premium as an indicator of institutional interest, and as of yet it remains to be seen if that premium can be recaptured in the wake of emerging alternative investment vehicles for Bitcoin such as the newly established Canadian ETFs.

Image courtesy of bybt.com

Open Interest and Liquidations

Total open interest barely budged, with $21.07B still active in the market compared to March 15ths $21.12B. Binance increased its share of the pie ever so slightly, growing from $3.68B to $3.79B. Bybit traders are perhaps a bit gun-shy this week as volumes have grown in other exchanges while Bybit dropped from $3.55B to $3.16B.

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Notable News

Morgan Stanley Becomes First Major US Bank to Offer Clients Access to Bitcoin Funds

India to Make Holding Bitcoin Illegal

Contact us for a demo of our SigDev platform to view all market-moving events in real-time.

This Week's Podcast Episodes

Deep Dive into DeFi with Hassan Bassiri (Arca)
Hassan Bassiri (VP Portfolio Management at Arca) joins The TIE's Fundamental Value Podcast to discuss Binance Smart Chain, Solana, AVAX, and the heating up L1 race, trading DeFi at scale, and managing risk in a bull market. Listen here